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Mushuc Runa SC vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
5/4/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC37%
×Draw26%
LDU de Quito37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.29
LDU de Quito
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
63%
Mushuc Runa SC or LDU de Quito
74%
Draw or LDU de Quito
63%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
16%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
72%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
37%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
14%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
73%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
37%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
50%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
37%
level
26%
LDU de Quito scores more
37%

Mushuc Runa SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Mushuc Runa SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa in Ambato.