Mushuc Runa SC 2–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

F. Rivero 90+6'

M. Carrasco 87'

J. Anangonó 84'

L. Quiñónez 60'

6/17/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC37%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Mushuc Runa SC

1.29

LDU de Quito

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

1.44

creates per match

1.37

1.23

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.44

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

63%

Mushuc Runa SC or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

63%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

16%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

72%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

37%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

14%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

37%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

50%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.44 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

37%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

37%

Mushuc Runa SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Anangonó

LDU de Quito · F

7.7

Match Events

33'

45+4'

54'

58'

60'

67'

76'

J. Anangonó← J. Angulo

76'

Á. Gonzalez← R. Ibarra

76'

L. Alzugaray← J. Julio

78'

J. Monaga← R. Zambrano

78'

M. Corozo← B. Delgado

78'

M. Carrasco← M. Montaño

84'

J. Anangonó↳ Á. Gonzalez

87'

W. Ayoví← S. González

87'

M. Carrasco↳ S. González

90+4'

Richard Mina

90'

S. González← A. Alvarado

90+6'

F. Rivero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucLDU

Overview

33%Possession67%

11Total Shots24

6Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots24

3On Target8

6Off Target13

2Blocked3

6Inside Box13

5Outside Box11

Passing

33%Possession67%

209Total Passes461

141Accurate Passes383

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2