Mushuc Runa SC 3–0 Imbabura: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Imbabura

3/16/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 3Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC55%

×Draw23%

Imbabura22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchImbabura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.11

Mushuc Runa SC

1.88

Imbabura

1.11

Mushuc Runa SC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 15 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.43

Imbabura

1.00

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

Imbabura

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Imbabura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

78%

Mushuc Runa SC or Imbabura

77%

Draw or Imbabura

45%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

32%

Imbabura wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

85%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

56%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

29%

Imbabura 1+ goals

67%

Imbabura 2+ goals

30%

Imbabura 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

71%

Imbabura (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Imbabura attack 1.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

55%

level

23%

Imbabura scores more

22%

Mushuc Runa SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff