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Imbabura vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
8/18/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 3Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura43%
×Draw25%
Mushuc Runa SC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.55
Mushuc Runa SC
1.31

Imbabura creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 117 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
68%
Imbabura or Mushuc Runa SC
75%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
57%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
21%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
79%
Imbabura 2+ goals
46%
Imbabura 3+ goals
20%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
73%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
38%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
57%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Imbabura scores more
43%
level
25%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
32%

Imbabura at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Imbabura 2–3 Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat Imbabura 3-2 in Liga Pro on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.