Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

Á. Gracia 70'

A. Venezia 90+7'

10/19/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Municipal La Cocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC43%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cuenca30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.08

Mushuc Runa SC

1.36

Deportivo Cuenca

1.08

Mushuc Runa SC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.16

creates per match

1.29

0.87

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

70%

Mushuc Runa SC or Deportivo Cuenca

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

57%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

74%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

39%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

43%

level

27%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

30%

Mushuc Runa SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Á. Gracia

Mushuc Runa SC · M

7.3

Match Events

30'

31'

40'

41'

46'

E. Fernández← E. Caicedo

46'

B. Delgado← J. Vergés

46'

F. Obando← M. Acuña

54'

Ángel Gracia

54'

Danny Luna

60'

Steven TapieroPenalty cancelled

69'

70'

78'

78'

85'

A. Zambrano← E. Fernández

88'

Juan Cruz Randazzo

90+2'

Eddie Guevara

90+5'

Eddie GuevaraCard reviewed

90'

A. Venezia← L. Mancinelli

90+7'

A. Venezia↳ F. Mera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MushucDeportivo

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots8

3Corners11

13Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

1Inside Box4

14Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

235Total Passes435

140Accurate Passes322

60%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides5