Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mushuc Runa SC

A. Gomez 83'

6/28/2025

Liga Pro · Round 18Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca45%

×Draw28%

Mushuc Runa SC27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Deportivo Cuenca

1.33

Mushuc Runa SC

0.97

Deportivo Cuenca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.37

creates per match

0.85

1.09

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Mushuc Runa SC

0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Mushuc Runa SC

1.28

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+1.15scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

73%

Deportivo Cuenca or Mushuc Runa SC

72%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

21%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

62%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

25%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

62%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

45%

level

28%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

27%

Deportivo Cuenca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Gomez

Deportivo Cuenca · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

G. Mina← J. Charcopa

57'

A. Gomez

60'

E. Davila

69'

J. Ordonez← J. Chacon

70'

W. J. Chala Rosales

70'

L. Gustavino← A. Lopez

73'

B. Delgado← C. Orejuela

73'

R. Simisterra← J. Dos Santos

76'

J. Ordonez

77'

D. Noboa← A. Venezia

77'

A. Rodriguez← L. Estupinan

80'

K. Peralta← D. Quintero

83'

A. Gomez↳ C. Luna Tobar

90+10'

K. Peralta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoMushuc

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

1Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target0

5Off Target3

3Blocked4

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

298Total Passes190

240Accurate Passes123

81%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1