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Mushuc Runa SC vs Cruzeiro — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
C. Orejuela 55'
L. Diaz 62'
5/8/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC42%
×Draw28%
Cruzeiro30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.30
Cruzeiro
1.05

Mushuc Runa SC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.80
Cruzeiro
0.90

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.20
Cruzeiro
0.80

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
70%
Mushuc Runa SC or Cruzeiro
72%
Draw or Cruzeiro
58%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
19%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
73%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
37%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
14%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
65%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
28%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
58%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.80 + Cruzeiro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cruzeiro attack 0.90 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
42%
level
28%
Cruzeiro scores more
30%

Mushuc Runa SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
R. FormentoMushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC · G
7.2

Match Events

26'
Nicolás Davila
38'
Jonathan Jesus
45+1'
Murilo Rhikman
55'
C. Orejuela
61'
L. Romero← Walace
61'
Kenji← Rodriguinho
62'
L. Diaz
67'
Luis Arce
70'
E. Caicedo← R. Simisterra
70'
Wanderson← Eduardo
70'
J. Dinenno← Y. Bolasie
79'
Fagner← Kaua Prates
80'
Cristian Penilla

Possession

38%Mushuc

Shots

13Mushuc

Pass accuracy

44%Mushuc

Statistics

MushucCruzeiro
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots7
4Corners2
13Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots7
3On Target4
8Off Target2
2Blocked1
9Inside Box2
4Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
215Total Passes375
138Accurate Passes307
64%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Cruzeiro

Mushuc Runa SC and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 8, 2025.

Goals: C. Orejuela (55'), L. Diaz (62').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa in Ambato.