Cruzeiro 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mushuc Runa SC

Gabriel Barbosa 68' (pen)

B. Bentaberry 78'

C. Orejuela 30'

4/10/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cruzeiro32%

×Draw30%

Mushuc Runa SC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.08

Cruzeiro

0.96

Mushuc Runa SC

1.08

Mushuc Runa SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.25

Mushuc Runa SC

1.17

allows per match

Cruzeiro

1.00

Mushuc Runa SC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

62%

Cruzeiro or Mushuc Runa SC

70%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

68%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

12%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

62%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

25%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

7%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

66%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

29%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

46%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.25 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.17 + Cruzeiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

32%

level

30%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

38%

Mushuc Runa SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Pereira

Cruzeiro · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

Wanderson← Matheus Henrique

17'

B. Delgado← S. Tapiero

30'

45+3'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

64'

DuduPenalty confirmed

66'

Glendys Mina

68'

Gabriel BarbosaPenalty

73'

M. Alonso← C. Orejuela

75'

Nicolás Davila

75'

Kaio Jorge←

78'

B. Bentaberry↳ M. Alonso

83'

Lucas Silva← L. Romero

83'

L. Diaz← Gabriel Barbosa

83'

Rodriguinho← Dudu

85'

K. Peralta← C. Penilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroMushuc

Overview

75%Possession25%

10Total Shots12

5Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target4

4Off Target7

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

75%Possession25%

596Total Passes201

526Accurate Passes117

88%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1