Mushuc Runa SC vs America de Quito — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Mushuc Runa SC54%
America de Quito20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mushuc Runa SC creates 88% more chances
Season form · 118 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mushuc Runa SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches
America de Quito away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + America de Quito defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52
America de Quito attack 0.40 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Mushuc Runa SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Aucas
Emelec
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico UniversitarioMushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
Orense SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Mushuc Runa SC host America de Quito on Saturday, 6 July 2019 at 16:30. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs America de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC beat America de Quito 2-1 in Liga Pro on July 6, 2019.
Goals: Dennis Quintero (24'), Juan Amieva (36'), Daniel Segura (52').
America de Quito controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.