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America de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
5/23/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 14Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

America de Quito42%
×Draw27%
Mushuc Runa SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.33
Mushuc Runa SC
1.10

America de Quito creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 22 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Mushuc Runa SC
1.36

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Mushuc Runa SC
1.18

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
69%
America de Quito or Mushuc Runa SC
73%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
58%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
19%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
74%
America de Quito 2+ goals
38%
America de Quito 3+ goals
15%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
67%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
30%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
58%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.36 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

America de Quito scores more
42%
level
27%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
31%

America de Quito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC

America de Quito beat Mushuc Runa SC 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).