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Mushowani Stars vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
FT
2 – 2
Kariba
Kariba
7/28/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 16Trojan Mine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mushowani Stars42%
×Draw29%
Kariba30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushowani Stars
1.22
Kariba
0.98

Mushowani Stars creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Mushowani Stars
1.24
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Mushowani Stars
1.35
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushowani Stars ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mushowani Stars or draw
70%
Mushowani Stars or Kariba
71%
Draw or Kariba
58%

Winning margin

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
18%
Kariba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
70%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
34%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
12%
Kariba 1+ goals
62%
Kariba 2+ goals
26%
Kariba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
58%
Kariba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushowani Stars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushowani Stars attack 1.24 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kariba attack 0.61 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mushowani Stars scores more
42%
level
29%
Kariba scores more
30%

Mushowani Stars at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushowani Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Mushowani Stars 2–2 Kariba

Mushowani Stars and Kariba drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Trojan Mine Stadium in Bindura.