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Kariba vs Mushowani Stars — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
1 – 2
Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
12/11/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 33Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kariba48%
×Draw30%
Mushowani Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
1.21
Mushowani Stars
0.71

Kariba creates 70% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Mushowani Stars
0.83

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Mushowani Stars
1.56

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Mushowani Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
78%
Kariba or Mushowani Stars
70%
Draw or Mushowani Stars
52%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
21%
Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
70%
Kariba 2+ goals
34%
Kariba 3+ goals
12%
Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
51%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
16%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
69%
Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kariba scores more
48%
level
30%
Mushowani Stars scores more
22%

Kariba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariba vs Mushowani Stars

Mushowani Stars beat Kariba 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.