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Mushowani Stars vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
FT
2 – 0
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
5/11/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mushowani Stars38%
×Draw30%
Black Rhinos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushowani Stars
1.13
Black Rhinos
1.01

Mushowani Stars creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mushowani Stars
1.24
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

Mushowani Stars
1.35
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushowani Stars ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mushowani Stars or draw
68%
Mushowani Stars or Black Rhinos
70%
Draw or Black Rhinos
62%

Winning margin

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
16%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
68%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
31%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
11%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
64%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
27%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushowani Stars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushowani Stars attack 1.24 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mushowani Stars scores more
38%
level
30%
Black Rhinos scores more
32%

Mushowani Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mushowani Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushowani Stars vs Black Rhinos

Mushowani Stars beat Black Rhinos 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.