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Black Rhinos vs Mushowani Stars — Premier Soccer League 2026

Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
FT
1 – 1
Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
10/3/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Black Rhinos47%
×Draw28%
Mushowani Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Rhinos
1.31
Mushowani Stars
0.85

Black Rhinos creates 54% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Black Rhinos
1.06
Mushowani Stars
0.83

allows per match

Black Rhinos
0.88
Mushowani Stars
1.56

finishing

Black Rhinos+0.00on par
Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Rhinos ↓

Mushowani Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Black Rhinos or draw
76%
Black Rhinos or Mushowani Stars
72%
Draw or Mushowani Stars
53%

Winning margin

Black Rhinos wins by 2+
22%
Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Black Rhinos 1+ goals
73%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
38%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
14%
Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
57%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
21%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
66%
Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Rhinos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Rhinos attack 1.06 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Black Rhinos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Black Rhinos scores more
47%
level
28%
Mushowani Stars scores more
24%

Black Rhinos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Black Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Rhinos vs Mushowani Stars

Black Rhinos and Mushowani Stars drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 3, 2019.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.