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Muscat vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Muscat
Muscat
FT
2 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
10/22/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 8Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Muscat42%
×Draw23%
Invincible Eleven35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muscat
1.69
Invincible Eleven
1.52

Muscat creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

Muscat
1.62
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Muscat
2.15
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Muscat+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muscat ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Muscat or draw
65%
Muscat or Invincible Eleven
77%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
58%

Winning margin

Muscat wins by 2+
22%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Muscat 1+ goals
82%
Muscat 2+ goals
50%
Muscat 3+ goals
24%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
45%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Muscat (draw refunded)
55%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muscat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muscat attack 1.62 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Muscat defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muscat scores more
42%
level
23%
Invincible Eleven scores more
35%

Muscat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muscat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Muscat 2–0 Invincible Eleven

Muscat beat Invincible Eleven 2-0 in LFA First Division on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.