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Invincible Eleven vs Muscat — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Muscat
Muscat
3/18/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Invincible Eleven41%
×Draw26%
Muscat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
1.44
Muscat
1.29

Invincible Eleven creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 13 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
Muscat
1.23

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
Muscat
1.69

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

Muscat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
66%
Invincible Eleven or Muscat
74%
Draw or Muscat
59%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
19%
Muscat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
76%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
42%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
18%
Muscat 1+ goals
72%
Muscat 2+ goals
37%
Muscat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
55%
Muscat (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Muscat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + Muscat defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Muscat attack 1.23 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
41%
level
26%
Muscat scores more
34%

Invincible Eleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Invincible Eleven vs Muscat

Invincible Eleven beat Muscat 2-1 in LFA First Division on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.