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Muscat vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Muscat
Muscat
FT
1 – 1
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
3/25/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Muscat33%
×Draw22%
Heaven Eleven45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muscat
1.56
Heaven Eleven
1.85

Heaven Eleven creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Muscat
1.62
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Muscat
2.15
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Muscat+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muscat ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Muscat or draw
55%
Muscat or Heaven Eleven
78%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
67%

Winning margin

Muscat wins by 2+
16%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Muscat 1+ goals
79%
Muscat 2+ goals
46%
Muscat 3+ goals
21%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
84%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
55%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Muscat (draw refunded)
42%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muscat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muscat attack 1.62 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Muscat defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muscat scores more
33%
level
22%
Heaven Eleven scores more
45%

Heaven Eleven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Muscat 1–1 Heaven Eleven

Muscat and Heaven Eleven drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.