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Heaven Eleven vs Muscat — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
0 – 2
Muscat
Muscat
10/29/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heaven Eleven48%
×Draw24%
Muscat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.71
Muscat
1.27

Heaven Eleven creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Muscat
1.23

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Muscat
1.69

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Muscat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
71%
Heaven Eleven or Muscat
76%
Draw or Muscat
52%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
25%
Muscat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
51%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
24%
Muscat 1+ goals
72%
Muscat 2+ goals
36%
Muscat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
63%
Muscat (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Muscat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Muscat defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Muscat attack 1.23 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
48%
level
24%
Muscat scores more
29%

Heaven Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heaven Eleven vs Muscat

Muscat beat Heaven Eleven 2-0 in LFA First Division on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.