Muscat 1–1 Al-Nahda: Result & Stats

Muscat

FT

1 – 1

Al-Nahda

2/28/2020

Professional League · Round 21Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Muscat27%

×Draw29%

Al-Nahda45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuscatExpected goals in this matchAl-Nahda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.27

Muscat

0.91

Al-Nahda

1.27

Al-Nahda creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 81 away

1.03

creates per match

1.25

1.28

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Muscat

1.03

Al-Nahda

1.25

allows per match

Muscat

1.28

Al-Nahda

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muscat+0.00on par

Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muscat ↓

Al-Nahda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Muscat or draw

55%

Muscat or Al-Nahda

71%

Draw or Al-Nahda

73%

Winning margin

Muscat wins by 2+

9%

Al-Nahda wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Muscat 1+ goals

60%

Muscat 2+ goals

23%

Muscat 3+ goals

6%

Al-Nahda 1+ goals

72%

Al-Nahda 2+ goals

36%

Al-Nahda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Muscat (draw refunded)

37%

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muscat at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muscat attack 1.03 + Al-Nahda defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al-Nahda attack 1.25 + Muscat defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muscat scores more

27%

level

29%

Al-Nahda scores more

45%

Al-Nahda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Nahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff