Al-Nahda 2–1 Muscat: Result & Stats

Al-Nahda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Muscat

4/25/2022

Professional League · Round 22Buraimi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al-Nahda54%

×Draw26%

Muscat20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NahdaExpected goals in this matchMuscat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.82

Al-Nahda

1.51

Muscat

0.82

Al-Nahda creates 84% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

1.55

creates per match

0.87

0.78

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Al-Nahda

1.55

Muscat

0.87

allows per match

Al-Nahda

0.78

Muscat

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Muscat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw

80%

Al-Nahda or Muscat

74%

Draw or Muscat

46%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+

28%

Muscat wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals

78%

Al-Nahda 2+ goals

44%

Al-Nahda 3+ goals

19%

Muscat 1+ goals

56%

Muscat 2+ goals

20%

Muscat 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)

72%

Muscat (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Muscat away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 1.55 + Muscat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Muscat attack 0.87 + Al-Nahda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Nahda scores more

54%

level

26%

Muscat scores more

20%

Al-Nahda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Nahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff