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Murom vs Volga Ulyanovsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
10/5/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 12Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom29%
×Draw29%
Volga Ulyanovsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
0.98
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.23

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Murom
1.06
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.33

allows per match

Murom
1.13
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.89

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Murom or draw
58%
Murom or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
11%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
62%
Murom 2+ goals
26%
Murom 3+ goals
8%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
71%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
35%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
41%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.06 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.33 + Murom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Murom scores more
29%
level
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
42%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Murom 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.