Murom 1–0 Volga Ulyanovsk: Result & Stats

Murom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volga Ulyanovsk

8/13/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 5Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom31%

×Draw29%

Volga Ulyanovsk40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuromExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.17

Murom

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.17

Volga Ulyanovsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

0.78

1.56

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Murom

1.22

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.78

allows per match

Murom

1.56

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murom+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Murom or draw

60%

Murom or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

69%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+

12%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals

63%

Murom 2+ goals

26%

Murom 3+ goals

8%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

69%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

33%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)

44%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.22 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.78 + Murom defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Murom scores more

31%

level

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

40%

Volga Ulyanovsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Volga Ulyanovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff