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Murom vs Krasnodar 2 — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
9/21/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom43%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar 232%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.48
Krasnodar 2
1.23

Murom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Murom
1.06
Krasnodar 2
1.33

allows per match

Murom
1.13
Krasnodar 2
1.89

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Murom or draw
68%
Murom or Krasnodar 2
74%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
57%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
21%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
77%
Murom 2+ goals
43%
Murom 3+ goals
19%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
71%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
35%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
58%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.06 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Murom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Murom scores more
43%
level
26%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
32%

Murom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Krasnodar 2

Krasnodar 2 beat Murom 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.