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Murom vs Krasnodar 2 — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
10/1/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom31%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar 243%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.17
Krasnodar 2
1.45

Krasnodar 2 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Murom
1.22
Krasnodar 2
1.33

allows per match

Murom
1.56
Krasnodar 2
1.11

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Murom or draw
57%
Murom or Krasnodar 2
74%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
69%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
12%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
69%
Murom 2+ goals
33%
Murom 3+ goals
11%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
77%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
42%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
41%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.22 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Murom defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Murom scores more
31%
level
26%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
43%

Krasnodar 2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Krasnodar 2

Krasnodar 2 beat Murom 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.