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Murom vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
10/24/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Murom52%
×Draw24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.69
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.07

Murom creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Murom or draw
76%
Murom or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
76%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
48%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
28%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
82%
Murom 2+ goals
50%
Murom 3+ goals
24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
66%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
29%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
68%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Murom scores more
52%
level
24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
24%

Murom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Murom 0–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Murom and Khimik Dzerzhinsk drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.