Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Murom: Result & Stats | Cup

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Murom

8/31/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk33%

×Draw27%

Murom41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik DzerzhinskExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.18

Murom

1.35

Murom creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

1.20

1.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

0.75

Murom

1.20

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.50

Murom

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw

59%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Murom

73%

Draw or Murom

67%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

13%

Murom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

69%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

33%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

12%

Murom 1+ goals

74%

Murom 2+ goals

39%

Murom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

45%

Murom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Murom away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 0.75 + Murom defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Murom attack 1.20 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

33%

level

27%

Murom scores more

41%

Murom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff