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Murom vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
M. Polkovnikov 78'
A. Masalov 63' (pen)
O. Popov 46'
4/5/2026Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Viktor Losev Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Murom46%
×Draw25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.52
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.15

Murom creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 61 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Murom or draw
71%
Murom or Dinamo St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
54%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
78%
Murom 2+ goals
45%
Murom 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Murom scores more
46%
level
25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
29%

Murom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
O. Popov
62'
R. Asaidulin
63'
A. MasalovPenalty
78'
M. Polkovnikov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Dinamo St. Petersburg

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Murom 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 5, 2026.

Goals: O. Popov (46'), A. Masalov (63' pen), M. Polkovnikov (78').

The match was played at Viktor Losev Stadion in Murom.