Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–2 Murom: Result & Stats

Dinamo St. Petersburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Murom

N. Sergeev 52'

N. Shikov 4' (OG)

6/3/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 11Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg40%

×Draw28%

Murom32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.26

Murom

1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

1.36

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.36

Murom

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.07

Murom

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw

68%

Dinamo St. Petersburg or Murom

72%

Draw or Murom

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

18%

Murom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

13%

Murom 1+ goals

67%

Murom 2+ goals

30%

Murom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

55%

Murom (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Murom away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Murom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Murom attack 1.13 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

40%

level

28%

Murom scores more

32%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. ShikovOwn goal

52'

N. Sergeev

59'

A. Pikarev← O. Pliev

65'

Y. Shatalin

79'

D. Dyatlov← D. Gubanov

83'

E. Kashin← D. Zinovich

83'

K. Popov← R. Belyaev

88'

N. Golub

88'

T. Kalistratov

90'

N. Kozlov← A. Pikarev

90+1'

G. Minosyan← N. Golub

90+1'

D. Santalov← D. Shabalin

Dinamo

Murom

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

Manager: A. Curtianu

59'▲A. Pikarev←▼O. Pliev

79'▲D. Dyatlov←▼D. Gubanov

90'▲N. Kozlov←▼A. Pikarev

Dinamo St. Petersburg substitutes

PikarevDyatlovKozlov

Manager: E. Perevertaylo

83'▲E. Kashin←▼D. Zinovich

83'▲K. Popov←▼R. Belyaev

90+1'▲G. Minosyan←▼N. Golub

90+1'▲D. Santalov←▼D. Shabalin

Murom substitutes

KashinPopovMinosyanSantalov

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–2 Murom

Murom beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 3, 2022.

Goals: N. Shikov (4' o.g.), N. Sergeev (52').

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in St. Petersburg.

Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Murom — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–2 Murom