Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Murom vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
10/15/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 14Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom39%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.39
Dinamo Bryansk
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Murom
1.22
Dinamo Bryansk
1.11

allows per match

Murom
1.56
Dinamo Bryansk
1.56

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Murom or draw
64%
Murom or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
61%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
75%
Murom 2+ goals
40%
Murom 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
52%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.22 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Murom defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Murom scores more
39%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
36%

Murom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Dinamo Bryansk

Murom beat Dinamo Bryansk 3-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.