Dinamo Bryansk 1–0 Murom: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Murom

8/19/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk34%

×Draw29%

Murom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.17

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

Murom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

0.89

creates per match

1.44

0.89

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.89

Murom

1.44

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.89

Murom

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

63%

Dinamo Bryansk or Murom

71%

Draw or Murom

66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

14%

Murom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

10%

Murom 1+ goals

69%

Murom 2+ goals

33%

Murom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

48%

Murom (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Murom away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Murom defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Murom attack 1.44 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

34%

level

29%

Murom scores more

37%

Murom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff