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Murense vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Murense
Murense
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mercadal
Mercadal
3/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 25Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense32%
×Draw27%
Mercadal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murense
1.18
Mercadal
1.37

Mercadal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 86 away

creates per match

Murense
0.90
Mercadal
0.84

allows per match

Murense
1.90
Mercadal
1.45

finishing

Murense+0.00on par
Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Mercadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Murense or draw
59%
Murense or Mercadal
73%
Draw or Mercadal
68%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+
13%
Mercadal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals
69%
Murense 2+ goals
33%
Murense 3+ goals
12%
Mercadal 1+ goals
75%
Mercadal 2+ goals
40%
Mercadal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)
44%
Mercadal (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Murense scores more
32%
level
27%
Mercadal scores more
41%

Mercadal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murense vs Mercadal

Mercadal beat Murense 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Fútbol de Muro in Muro.