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Mercadal vs Murense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mercadal
Mercadal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Murense
Murense
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mercadal57%
×Draw25%
Murense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercadal
1.64
Murense
0.81

Mercadal creates 102% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mercadal
1.38
Murense
0.65

allows per match

Mercadal
0.98
Murense
1.90

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par
Murense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Murense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw
82%
Mercadal or Murense
75%
Draw or Murense
43%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+
31%
Murense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals
81%
Mercadal 2+ goals
49%
Mercadal 3+ goals
23%
Murense 1+ goals
56%
Murense 2+ goals
19%
Murense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)
76%
Murense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Murense away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Murense attack 0.65 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mercadal scores more
57%
level
25%
Murense scores more
18%

Mercadal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mercadal vs Murense

Mercadal and Murense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Menorca.