Murense 0–2 Inter Ibiza: Result & Stats

Murense

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Ibiza

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 29Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense35%

×Draw26%

Inter Ibiza40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MurenseExpected goals in this matchInter Ibiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.41

Murense

1.30

Inter Ibiza

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

0.90

creates per match

0.92

1.90

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Murense

0.90

Inter Ibiza

0.92

allows per match

Murense

1.90

Inter Ibiza

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murense+0.00on par

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Inter Ibiza →

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Murense or draw

60%

Murense or Inter Ibiza

74%

Draw or Inter Ibiza

65%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+

15%

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals

73%

Murense 2+ goals

37%

Murense 3+ goals

14%

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals

76%

Inter Ibiza 2+ goals

41%

Inter Ibiza 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)

47%

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Inter Ibiza away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Inter Ibiza attack 0.92 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Murense scores more

35%

level

26%

Inter Ibiza scores more

40%

Inter Ibiza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff