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Inter Ibiza vs Murense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Murense
Murense
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inter Ibiza57%
×Draw23%
Murense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Ibiza
1.75
Murense
0.90

Inter Ibiza creates 94% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter Ibiza
1.59
Murense
0.65

allows per match

Inter Ibiza
1.14
Murense
1.90

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par
Murense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

Murense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw
81%
Inter Ibiza or Murense
77%
Draw or Murense
43%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
32%
Murense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
83%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
52%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
25%
Murense 1+ goals
59%
Murense 2+ goals
23%
Murense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
75%
Murense (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Murense away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Murense attack 0.65 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more
57%
level
23%
Murense scores more
19%

Inter Ibiza at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Ibiza vs Murense

Inter Ibiza beat Murense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Can Canto in Ibiza.