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Murdoch Melville vs Kingsley Westside — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kingsley Westside
Kingsley Westside
3/22/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 1Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Murdoch Melville42%
×Draw22%
Kingsley Westside37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murdoch Melville
1.92
Kingsley Westside
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Kingsley Westside
1.50

allows per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Kingsley Westside
1.73

finishing

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par
Kingsley Westside+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murdoch Melville ↓

Kingsley Westside →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Murdoch Melville or draw
63%
Murdoch Melville or Kingsley Westside
78%
Draw or Kingsley Westside
58%

Winning margin

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
23%
Kingsley Westside wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
85%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
57%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
30%
Kingsley Westside 1+ goals
83%
Kingsley Westside 2+ goals
54%
Kingsley Westside 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
53%
Kingsley Westside (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murdoch Melville at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

Kingsley Westside away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murdoch Melville attack 2.10 + Kingsley Westside defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kingsley Westside attack 1.50 + Murdoch Melville defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Murdoch Melville scores more
42%
level
22%
Kingsley Westside scores more
37%

Murdoch Melville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Murdoch Melville 2–0 Kingsley Westside

Murdoch Melville beat Kingsley Westside 2-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A in Perth.