Kingsley Westside 3–3 Murdoch Melville

Kingsley Westside

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Murdoch Melville

6/21/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 13Chichester Park A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kingsley Westside39%

×Draw22%

Murdoch Melville39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingsley WestsideExpected goals in this matchMurdoch Melville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.85

Kingsley Westside

1.83

Murdoch Melville

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.80

creates per match

2.17

1.53

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Kingsley Westside

1.80

Murdoch Melville

2.17

allows per match

Kingsley Westside

1.53

Murdoch Melville

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingsley Westside+0.00on par

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingsley Westside ↓

Murdoch Melville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kingsley Westside or draw

61%

Kingsley Westside or Murdoch Melville

78%

Draw or Murdoch Melville

61%

Winning margin

Kingsley Westside wins by 2+

20%

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kingsley Westside 1+ goals

84%

Kingsley Westside 2+ goals

54%

Kingsley Westside 3+ goals

28%

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals

84%

Murdoch Melville 2+ goals

55%

Murdoch Melville 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kingsley Westside (draw refunded)

49%

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingsley Westside at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Murdoch Melville away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingsley Westside attack 1.80 + Murdoch Melville defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Murdoch Melville attack 2.17 + Kingsley Westside defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kingsley Westside scores more

39%

level

22%

Murdoch Melville scores more

39%

Kingsley Westside at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kingsley Westside will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff