Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Murdoch Melville vs Kalamunda City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
5/31/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 10Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Murdoch Melville42%
×Draw24%
Kalamunda City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murdoch Melville
1.64
Kalamunda City
1.46

Murdoch Melville creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Kalamunda City
0.82

allows per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Kalamunda City
1.18

finishing

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par
Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murdoch Melville ↓

Kalamunda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Murdoch Melville or draw
66%
Murdoch Melville or Kalamunda City
76%
Draw or Kalamunda City
58%

Winning margin

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
21%
Kalamunda City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
81%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
49%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
23%
Kalamunda City 1+ goals
77%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
43%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
55%
Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murdoch Melville at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murdoch Melville attack 2.10 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Murdoch Melville defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Murdoch Melville scores more
42%
level
24%
Kalamunda City scores more
34%

Murdoch Melville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Murdoch Melville 1–0 Kalamunda City

Murdoch Melville beat Kalamunda City 1-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A in Perth.