Kalamunda City 3–4 Murdoch Melville: Result & Stats

Kalamunda City

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Murdoch Melville

8/16/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 21Maida Vale Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City29%

×Draw21%

Murdoch Melville50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalamunda CityExpected goals in this matchMurdoch Melville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.13

Kalamunda City

1.57

Murdoch Melville

2.13

Murdoch Melville creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.27

creates per match

2.17

2.09

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Kalamunda City

1.27

Murdoch Melville

2.17

allows per match

Kalamunda City

2.09

Murdoch Melville

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

Murdoch Melville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw

50%

Kalamunda City or Murdoch Melville

79%

Draw or Murdoch Melville

71%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

13%

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

79%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

46%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

21%

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals

88%

Murdoch Melville 2+ goals

63%

Murdoch Melville 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

36%

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Murdoch Melville away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + Murdoch Melville defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Murdoch Melville attack 2.17 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kalamunda City scores more

29%

level

21%

Murdoch Melville scores more

50%

Murdoch Melville at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff