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Murdoch Melville vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
5/25/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 8Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Murdoch Melville54%
×Draw18%
ECU Joondalup28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murdoch Melville
2.87
ECU Joondalup
2.05

Murdoch Melville creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murdoch Melville ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Murdoch Melville or draw
72%
Murdoch Melville or ECU Joondalup
82%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
46%

Winning margin

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
36%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
94%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
77%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
53%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
87%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
61%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
66%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murdoch Melville at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murdoch Melville attack 2.10 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.87

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Murdoch Melville defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Murdoch Melville scores more
54%
level
18%
ECU Joondalup scores more
28%

Murdoch Melville at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murdoch Melville vs ECU Joondalup

Murdoch Melville beat ECU Joondalup 5-4 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A in Perth.