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ECU Joondalup vs Murdoch Melville — Western Australia State League 1 2024

ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
8/10/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 19Forrest Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup44%
×Draw20%
Murdoch Melville36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ECU Joondalup
2.25
Murdoch Melville
2.04

ECU Joondalup creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

ECU Joondalup
2.64
Murdoch Melville
2.17

allows per match

ECU Joondalup
1.91
Murdoch Melville
1.87

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par
Murdoch Melville+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

Murdoch Melville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw
64%
ECU Joondalup or Murdoch Melville
80%
Draw or Murdoch Melville
56%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
25%
Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
89%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
65%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
39%
Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
87%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
60%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
55%
Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Murdoch Melville away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + Murdoch Melville defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.25

Murdoch Melville attack 2.17 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more
44%
level
20%
Murdoch Melville scores more
36%

ECU Joondalup at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ECU Joondalup vs Murdoch Melville

Murdoch Melville beat ECU Joondalup 3-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Forrest Park in Perth.