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Murchante vs Bidezarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Murchante
Murchante
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bidezarra
Bidezarra
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Murchante37%
×Draw28%
Bidezarra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murchante
1.19
Bidezarra
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 66 away

creates per match

Murchante
1.00
Bidezarra
1.09

allows per match

Murchante
1.21
Bidezarra
1.39

finishing

Murchante+0.00on par
Bidezarra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murchante ↓

Bidezarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murchante or draw
65%
Murchante or Bidezarra
72%
Draw or Bidezarra
63%

Winning margin

Murchante wins by 2+
16%
Bidezarra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Murchante 1+ goals
70%
Murchante 2+ goals
33%
Murchante 3+ goals
12%
Bidezarra 1+ goals
68%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
32%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Murchante (draw refunded)
51%
Bidezarra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murchante at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Bidezarra away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murchante attack 1.00 + Bidezarra defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bidezarra attack 1.09 + Murchante defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Murchante scores more
37%
level
28%
Bidezarra scores more
35%

Murchante at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Murchante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murchante vs Bidezarra

Murchante and Bidezarra drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Cascante.