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Bidezarra vs Murchante — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Murchante
Murchante
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bidezarra43%
×Draw28%
Murchante29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.30
Murchante
1.01

Bidezarra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 41 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Murchante
1.05

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Murchante
1.41

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Murchante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
71%
Bidezarra or Murchante
72%
Draw or Murchante
57%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
20%
Murchante wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
73%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
37%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
14%
Murchante 1+ goals
64%
Murchante 2+ goals
27%
Murchante 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
60%
Murchante (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Murchante attack 1.05 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bidezarra scores more
43%
level
28%
Murchante scores more
29%

Bidezarra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Bidezarra 0–3 Murchante

Murchante beat Bidezarra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.