Muravera 1–1 Città di Anagni: Result & Stats

Muravera

FT

1 – 1

Città di Anagni

10/6/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 6Campo Sportivo di Muravera (Muravera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Muravera45%

×Draw24%

Città di Anagni31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuraveraExpected goals in this matchCittà di Anagni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.32

Muravera

1.65

Città di Anagni

1.32

Muravera creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Muravera

1.53

Città di Anagni

1.31

allows per match

Muravera

1.33

Città di Anagni

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muravera+0.00on par

Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muravera ↓

Città di Anagni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Muravera or draw

69%

Muravera or Città di Anagni

76%

Draw or Città di Anagni

55%

Winning margin

Muravera wins by 2+

23%

Città di Anagni wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Muravera 1+ goals

81%

Muravera 2+ goals

49%

Muravera 3+ goals

23%

Città di Anagni 1+ goals

73%

Città di Anagni 2+ goals

38%

Città di Anagni 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Muravera (draw refunded)

60%

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muravera at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muravera attack 1.53 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Muravera defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muravera scores more

45%

level

24%

Città di Anagni scores more

31%

Muravera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Muravera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff