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Città di Anagni vs Muravera — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
FT
1 – 3
Muravera
Muravera
2/9/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 23Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni36%
×Draw25%
Muravera39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.44
Muravera
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Muravera
1.37

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Muravera
1.73

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Muravera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Muravera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
61%
Città di Anagni or Muravera
75%
Draw or Muravera
64%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
17%
Muravera wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
76%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
42%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
18%
Muravera 1+ goals
78%
Muravera 2+ goals
44%
Muravera 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
48%
Muravera (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Muravera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Muravera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Muravera attack 1.37 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
36%
level
25%
Muravera scores more
39%

Muravera at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Muravera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Città di Anagni vs Muravera

Muravera beat Città di Anagni 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).