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Murata vs Faetano — Coppa Titano 2020

Murata
Murataadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Faetano
Faetano
9/24/2025Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Murata57%
×Draw25%
Faetano18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murata
1.60
Faetano
0.77

Murata creates 108% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Murata
1.20
Faetano
0.43

allows per match

Murata
1.10
Faetano
2.00

finishing

Murata+0.00on par
Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murata ↓

Faetano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murata or draw
82%
Murata or Faetano
75%
Draw or Faetano
43%

Winning margin

Murata wins by 2+
31%
Faetano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Murata 1+ goals
80%
Murata 2+ goals
47%
Murata 3+ goals
22%
Faetano 1+ goals
54%
Faetano 2+ goals
18%
Faetano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Murata (draw refunded)
76%
Faetano (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murata at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Faetano away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murata attack 1.20 + Faetano defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Faetano attack 0.43 + Murata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Murata scores more
57%
level
25%
Faetano scores more
18%

Murata at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Murata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murata vs Faetano

Murata beat Faetano 2-0 in Coppa Titano on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio di Domagnano in Domagnano.