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Faetano vs Murata — Coppa Titano 2020

Faetano
Faetano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Murata
Murata
S. Alabay 71'
E. Gashi 90'
10/22/2025Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Faetano37%
×Draw28%
Murata34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faetano
1.19
Murata
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Faetano
1.25
Murata
0.88

allows per match

Faetano
1.38
Murata
1.13

finishing

Faetano+0.00on par
Murata+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faetano ↓

Murata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Faetano or draw
66%
Faetano or Murata
72%
Draw or Murata
63%

Winning margin

Faetano wins by 2+
16%
Murata wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Faetano 1+ goals
70%
Faetano 2+ goals
33%
Faetano 3+ goals
12%
Murata 1+ goals
68%
Murata 2+ goals
31%
Murata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Faetano (draw refunded)
52%
Murata (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faetano at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Murata away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faetano attack 1.25 + Murata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Murata attack 0.88 + Faetano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Faetano scores more
37%
level
28%
Murata scores more
34%

Faetano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Faetano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
S. Alabay↳ S. Tugliani
90'
E. Gashi
Faetano
Murata
A. Ricchiuti
Manager: A. Ricchiuti
M. Camillini
Manager: M. Camillini

Match Recap: Faetano vs Murata

Faetano and Murata drew 1-1 in Coppa Titano on October 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Alabay (71'), E. Gashi (90').