Murang'a SEAL 5–0 Kajiado: Result & Stats

Murang'a SEAL

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kajiado

4/30/2023

Super League · Round 25St. Sebastian Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Murang'a SEAL75%

×Draw16%

Kajiado9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Murang'a SEALExpected goals in this matchKajiado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.69

Murang'a SEAL

2.42

Kajiado

0.69

Murang'a SEAL creates 251% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

2.33

creates per match

0.94

0.45

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL

2.33

Kajiado

0.94

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL

0.45

Kajiado

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Kajiado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw

91%

Murang'a SEAL or Kajiado

84%

Draw or Kajiado

25%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

52%

Kajiado wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

91%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

69%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

43%

Kajiado 1+ goals

50%

Kajiado 2+ goals

15%

Kajiado 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

90%

Kajiado (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 2.33 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.42

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Murang'a SEAL defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more

75%

level

16%

Kajiado scores more

9%

Murang'a SEAL at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff