Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kajiado vs Murang'a SEAL — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
1/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado38%
×Draw26%
Murang'a SEAL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.33
Murang'a SEAL
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Murang'a SEAL
1.11

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Murang'a SEAL
1.17

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Murang'a SEAL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
65%
Kajiado or Murang'a SEAL
74%
Draw or Murang'a SEAL
62%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
17%
Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
74%
Kajiado 2+ goals
38%
Kajiado 3+ goals
15%
Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
72%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
36%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
52%
Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Murang'a SEAL attack 1.11 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kajiado scores more
38%
level
26%
Murang'a SEAL scores more
35%

Kajiado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kajiado vs Murang'a SEAL

Kajiado and Murang'a SEAL drew 2-2 in Super League on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.