Murang'a SEAL 1–0 Gusii: Result & Stats

Murang'a SEAL

FT

1 – 0

Gusii

6/26/2022

Super League · Round 33St. Sebastian Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Murang'a SEAL71%

×Draw19%

Gusii10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Murang'a SEALExpected goals in this matchGusii

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.58

Murang'a SEAL

2.01

Gusii

0.58

Murang'a SEAL creates 247% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

2.33

creates per match

0.72

0.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL

2.33

Gusii

0.72

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL

0.45

Gusii

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Gusii+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Gusii →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw

90%

Murang'a SEAL or Gusii

81%

Draw or Gusii

29%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

45%

Gusii wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

87%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

59%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

32%

Gusii 1+ goals

44%

Gusii 2+ goals

12%

Gusii 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

88%

Gusii (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

Gusii away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 2.33 + Gusii defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.01

Gusii attack 0.72 + Murang'a SEAL defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more

71%

level

19%

Gusii scores more

10%

Murang'a SEAL at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff