Gusii 2–2 Murang'a SEAL: Result & Stats

Gusii

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Murang'a SEAL

7/8/2023

Super League · Round 38Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gusii41%

×Draw27%

Murang'a SEAL32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GusiiExpected goals in this matchMurang'a SEAL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.12

Gusii

1.31

Murang'a SEAL

1.12

Gusii creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

1.46

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Gusii

1.46

Murang'a SEAL

1.11

allows per match

Gusii

1.13

Murang'a SEAL

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gusii+0.00on par

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gusii ↓

Murang'a SEAL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gusii or draw

68%

Gusii or Murang'a SEAL

73%

Draw or Murang'a SEAL

59%

Winning margin

Gusii wins by 2+

19%

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gusii 1+ goals

73%

Gusii 2+ goals

38%

Gusii 3+ goals

14%

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

67%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

31%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gusii (draw refunded)

56%

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gusii at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gusii attack 1.46 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Murang'a SEAL attack 1.11 + Gusii defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gusii scores more

41%

level

27%

Murang'a SEAL scores more

32%

Gusii at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gusii will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff